Why I don't think Jahmene will win X-Factor - but I hope I am proved wrong!

HE'S the bookies' favourite, but can Jahmene Douglas really win X-Factor? I don't think so.

It's been an amazing journey for Jahmene who heads back home to Swindon this Wednesday to switch on the Christmas lights in the town centre, inevitably followed by a posse of ugly minders, slavish camera crew and schmoozing public relations floozies to keep his adoring fans at arm's length.

When a very shy and awkward Jahmene auditioned for X-Factor and then totally screwed up Maroon 5's "Moves Like Jagger" at Bootcamp, I feared how nerves would get the better of him so we would never get to see or hear his prodigious talent blossom.

But round by round, the 22-year-old former supermarket worker has got better and better. Having heard Jahmene perform several times, you can see how much his voice has matured, his breathing is controlled and he has far better stage presence - though he still hardly looks comfortable.

If, for nothing else, the X-Factor experience has been extremely cathartic for Jahmene.

The stories of the abuse his father Eustace meted out, who was eventually jailed for a blowtorch attack on his mother Mandy, and the suicide of his younger brother Daniel, were tales I was totally unaware of from the many times we had spoken. He never spoke of the family turmoil which he and his mother had endured. To that extent, Jahmene is a very private person.

By wearing his heart on his sleeve, by courageously talking about the domestic abuse in the home in such a humble way will hopefully serve as inspiration to tens of thousands of people who live under the same daily spectre.

 "If I had two minutes with David Cameron, I would give him the facts about domestic violence," Jahmene said recently. Brave words, inspirational belief. Like Sara Paine, who was a catalyst for change with tighter controls on child sex offenders after the murder of her eight-year-old daughter, maybe Jahmene might carry a similar beacon for the victims of domestic abuse through his words and music.  

Although this is about a singing competition, you sense that in terms of talent that this crucial factor doesn't count too highly with X-Factor. Instead, it is all about popularity, it's the freak factor added to a touch of tactical voting - talent, sadly, comes a remote fourth.

I just don't get the James Arthur attraction. He has the stage presence of Lurch, and the charisma of cardboard. His singing is just an uncontained growl and painful to hear. He is certainly not classic pop material but maybe I'm missing something and he will go on to carve out a successful music career ploughing his own unique furrow.

With Christopher Maloney, he was even more nervous when he auditioned first time and to have got as far as he has done is amazing. The guy is very karaoke, but the legions of Scouse fans love him and have no doubt swayed the voting to ensure that he is in contention. I have a sneaking suspicion that Christopher will oust Jahmene after the first round of voting to leave him and James Arthur fighting it out for the title this weekend.

Not that this should matter to Jahmene. Just look at Ray Quinn (2006), JLS (2008) and Olly Murs (2009) who all finished runners-up and have gone on to bigger and better things. Win or lose, Jahmene is bound for a music career which will jettison him to the next level.

Jahmene as a person is quality. He too is very humble and to follow his postings on Twitter and Facebook is to understand how inspirational this young man is. It's hard to realise he is just 22. There is not a bad bone in his body.

I don't think this has been the best X-Factor in terms of talent, but Jahmene stands out as the one singer, and one singer alone who possesses the X-Factor with his soulful, searching melodies, the way his powerful voice wraps itself around the melodies, and, above all he entertains.

It is for that reason that Jahmene should win X-Factor - but somehow, even at odds of 11-10 on, I doubt it.